506
FXUS65 KPSR 252115
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
215 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold mornings with seasonal afternoon temperatures are expected
through the first half of the workweek.
- Dry and tranquil weather conditions will prevail through the
next week with a slow warming trend into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The atmosphere has dried considerably over the last 12-24 hours in
the wake of the shortwave trough which is now pushing through
northern TX. Surface RH values have decreased by up to 20-40% and
PWAT values are down to 0.1-0.2" on mesoanalysis. Cooler air has
also filtered into the region, with most areas experiencing lows
this morning in the 30s to mid 40s. Highs this afternoon will
reach the mid to upper 60s across the lower deserts, slightly
below normal for late January, with mostly sunny skies. Lighter
winds tonight and tomorrow morning, along with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies, will lead to slightly cooler temperatures
than this morning. Isolated areas of frost may form Monday morning
in parts of Pinal County, where temperatures dip into the low to
mid 30s.
Monday will feature some breeziness across southern AZ after
sunrise, in response to a strong surface high (1040mb) developing
in CO. Easterly wind gusts up to 15-25 mph are expected with
gradual relaxing of the winds through the afternoon. After another
cold morning, high temperatures will warm a couple degrees, back
to around seasonal levels, while under scattered high clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through the rest of the workweek and next weekend, a progressive
pattern will take shape with successive ridges and troughs within
a subtropical westerly flow. Despite the troughs, prevailing
positive 500mb height anomalies are forecast throughout the next
week by global ensembles. This will result in at least a slow
warming trend through the week, with lower desert high
temperatures pushing middle 70s by the middle of the week and
upper 70s by next weekend. A trough mid to late week will bring
an increase in mid and high clouds and likely virga to the Desert
Southwest, but that is about it. Previous model runs had some
light precipitation with this trough, but that is all but gone
now. Latest NBM has PoPs max out around 5% with this trough. So,
expect continued dry conditions, and overall tranquil weather
conditions, through the next 7 days at least.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 1725Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds
will favor diurnal trends through Monday morning with speeds
generally aob 8 kts. Clear skies will give way to high cirrus
decks by this evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours. Winds
will favor a N`rly component with periods of VRB to calm
conditions during the evening and overnight hours. High clouds
will be present over the region through Monday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather conditions will prevail through at least the next
week, with daily MinRH values around 10-25% across all districts.
Overnight humidity recoveries will be around 35-55% in most
populated and agricultural areas. With the dry conditions, no
precipitation is expected. Elevated easterly winds winds are
expected the next few mornings across southern AZ districts, with
gusts up to 15-25 mph. Otherwise, expect light diurnally driven
winds. Temperatures will be near normal the next few days and then
warm above normal by the second half of the week into next
weekend.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Benedict
LONG TERM...Benedict
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict
NWS Phoenix Office
Tucson, AZ 
